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Tag: Weather Blog

The storm that could have changed history

Anyone in New York on the morning of September 11th, 2001 will tell you just how perfect the weather was that day.  Brilliant sunshine, a deep blue sky, and mild temperatures with low humidity, and a light north breeze. However, with a category 1 hurricane nearby, the weather and subsequent events of that day could have been drastically different. In the days leading up to that fateful morning, a hurricane was tracking through the Atlantic, moving northwest towards the East Coast. Hurricane Erin had formed a week prior across the tropical  Atlantic and began to strengthen on approach...

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Tropical Storm Kate forms in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Kate has formed in the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds at 45 mph.  Formerly known as Tropical Depression Ten, Kate is forecast to gradually strengthen over the next few days as the system generally moves north over the open Atlantic.  Forecast models are in strong agreement the storm will stay out at sea and not threaten the U.S. mainland.  NEW TROPICAL WAVE NEAR AFRICA Farther out at sea near the coast of Africa, another strong tropical wave has a high chance of developing as it continues to move west. The National Hurricane Center gives the disturbance an 80%...

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Tropical Storm Grace moves towards Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Grace continues to quickly move west while trying to remain organized. As of the 11 PM advisory, winds were sustained at 40 MPH as Grace moved WNW at 20 MPH. Over the next few days, Grace is expected to take a very similar track to that of Fred, along the southern periphery of a large ridge of high pressure across the North Atlantic.  This in turn, will steer Grace towards the Greater Antilles where significant uncertainty remains regarding strength and track. A track similar to Fred could spell a similar fate for Grace, ultimately falling apart over the high terrain of Hispanoila...

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SWFL in the cone of concern as Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 forms near the Leeward Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued in Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the eastern Dominican Republic Monday evening as Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 continues moving west-northwest at 16 mph. As of the 11 p.m. Monday advisory from the National Hurricane Center the system is producing maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as it swirls 40 miles east-southeast of Dominica.   Potential Tropical Cyclone is the term used to describe a weather system that is not yet strong or organized enough to be considered a tropical depression or tropical storm. However, in the next two days, it is forecast...

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How much rain fell during Elsa? Here’s a county-by-county tour

Tropical Storm Elsa dropped some big rain totals in parts of Southwest Florida in the past 24 hours, especially in western Lee and Charlotte Counties. That’s where most areas averaged more than 6″, with some areas exceeding 11″! Though South Florida is accustomed to heavy rain, that much rain falling across such a large area in less than a day can lead to significant flooding, and that was especially the case in areas of Cape Coral, Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte during the morning commute. Related story: Waterborne illness lurk in lingering floodwaters, health officials...

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How a snowman can help you visualize the impacts of wind shear on Tropical Storm Elsa

Wind shear has been a big influence on the evolution of Tropical Storm Elsa over the last day, and a big reason why it was able to weaken from a hurricane back to a tropical storm earlier this weekend.    Something to keep in mind during storm season is that the strongest tropical storms and hurricanes that can develop are often well-organized vertically. By this, we mean that the center of circulation in the low levels of the atmosphere lines up fairly closely with the center of circulation in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. When storms organize and align vertically they can become...

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Demonstrating why a hurricane’s forward speed matters

The rapid forward speed of Hurricane Elsa the past several days has been a noticeable statistic anyone following the storm’s movement has surely noticed.  In the last two days, Elsa’s been racing across the ocean anywhere from 25 to 30 mph.   When we talk about forward speed, we’re looking at how fast the entire storm system is moving across the map.  We’re not talking about the winds around the storm, as they’re much faster (gusting up to 86 mph in Barbados on Friday morning for example). So when looking at just the forward...

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First forecast cone issued on Potential Tropical Cyclone 5

Areas of South Florida just south of Collier County are inside the long-range forecast cone of Potential Tropical Cyclone 5.  The initial advisory was released at 5 p.m. this evening and shows the system becoming a tropical storm later tonight, and then moving west-northwestward over the Caribbean Sea this weekend. As of now, the extended range of the forecast cone does include parts of Florida, just south of the Collier County line. It’s important to note that forecast cones do not depict the only areas that see impacts from tropical systems. The cones express where based on...

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Two areas of interest in the Atlantic

Two tropical waves have the potential to develop as they move generally west-northwest through the Atlantic.  The first area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms but is unlikely to develop over the next few days with only a 10% chance of development. The second area of interest has a greater chance of development at 50% over the next two days and a 70% chance of development over the next five days.  During the month of June, it is more common to see developments in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean. As of now, those regions are quiet. The NBC 2 First Alert...

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Tropical Depression 4 forms off coast of Georgia and South Carolina

The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 4 at 11 a.m. Monday morning.  The depression is the feature we’ve been watching off the coast of South Carolina and Georgia for the past several days. It will not impact our local weather in Southwest Florida.   Tropical Depression 4 will be moving onshore today with a forward speed of at least 15 mph. This will bring gusty wind and heavy rain to southern South Carolina and eastern Georgia through the afternoon and evening.  Tropical Depression 4 is not the only tropical feature being watched by the National...

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